Skip to main content

Everybody Lies

Podcast  - Everybody Lies . . .

We are all Statisticians. “Yah right, everyone I've ever talked to hates statistics, and they hate math.” Don’t believe me?

Let me give you an everyday example: When you drive your car to work and approach a stoplight, pay attention next time to how you monitor traffic patterns and observe the sequence of the green, orange, and red lights.

Watch the light above you, to your right. The traffic running past you (perpendicular to you) has a green light, it changes to orange, then red. When the traffic stops, notice the slight delay before the traffic in front of you get’s the green arrow to turn left. During that 3 second delay, you can make your right turn and be safely ahead of the oncoming traffic turning left.

What’s going on here? You’re gathering data. Data that helps you decide whether to wait for your green light or make the right turn on a red light ahead of the oncoming traffic. In other words, you’re making an inference, “Drawing a conclusion from available evidence or data.” That’s statistics!

Why do this? Well, in California, anyway, we deal with a lot of impatient drivers. “I’m late, need to get to work. I can save a few precious seconds. Sitting at this stupid stoplight is a waste of time.”

I’m thinking you probably own a smartphone? According to Pew Research, “The vast majority of Americans – 96% – now own a cellphone of some kind. The share of Americans that own smartphones is now 81%, up from just 35% in Pew Research Center’s first survey of smartphone ownership conducted in 2011.”

When you have a question, need directions, or simply want to check your FaceBook status, your gathering data yet again to make a decision. How often do you do this? Not while you’re driving I hope.

If you have an iPhone try this; Go to Settings, then scroll down the list of apps until you find Battery, click on battery, then scroll down to see Battery Usage. This allows you to see what percentage of battery usage your phone is using for each app that you open. Oops, you're gathering data again. Watch out this is the math you hate.

How about getting directions? With your smartphone, you ask for directions in Google maps. While running in the background it’s recording your every move. Don’t believe me, try this; from your computer, go to google.com, search for Maps, click on Google Maps, click on the menu (top left corner), click on your places, then click on visit. This will show you all the locations you visited while using Google Maps. Yes, you can change your settings to stop this - but how many people do?

Even more fundamental is how data is gathered when you ask Google any question. What types of things do you ask in the privacy of your own home, with your smartphone, or your connected tablet? I can only speculate. However, all this data is being collected and used by social scientists to make an inference on health, political values, the economy, what news we're exposed to, and much more. 

Check out the book, 

Everybody Lies - Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Reveals About Who We Really Are. by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Every decision you make is based on some kind of data source. Growing up, it was sights, sounds, smells, and touch. Data that your mind gathered to allow you to make life decisions. Now technology allows scientists to gather data on everything we do or say based on the habits we develop using our smartphones.

What do you think about that Mr. or Ms. Statistician?

This is Patrick Ball, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.

Labels:

Comments

Anonymous said…
We have red, yellow and green lights here in the U.S.
August 14, 2020 at 4:17 PM
Post a Comment

Most Popular of All Time

From Mailbox to Microphone

In this episode, catching up with Sierra . What happens when you combine a little imagination, modern digital tools, and the willingness to make a glorious, muddy mess? You get our guest’s latest project. I’m Patrick Ball. Welcome back to On the Fly . Today, we are diving into the world of native plants and guerrilla gardening with twelve-year-old creator Sierra. After watching her impressive, self-produced tutorial on how to make ‘Seed Balls,’ I had to know how she did it. It’s incredibly inspiring to watch Sierra evolve from a young artist wielding crayons and stationery into a savvy digital creator. She’s writing scripts, mastering voiceovers, and editing—all to make a positive, green impact on her local community. “She shoots, she scores, and she’s here to tell us all about it.” Please welcome Sierra to On the Fly ! Let’s get into it. Audio interview . . . For more blog posts showcasing Sierra’s talents, see: The Mailbox Surprise . . . and The Summer Surprise I’m Patrick Ball. Sta...
Post a Comment
Read more

The AI Debate Was Settled in 1954

In this episode, what a 70-year-old sci-fi mystery teaches us. Welcome back to On the Fly. I’ve been looking for a clear way to explain how we should be handling Artificial Intelligence today. I finally found the answer hidden in a book I just finished. The twist? It was written more than seventy years ago. Isaac Asimov's The Caves of Steel was published in 1954, when a computer filled an entire room, consumed enough electricity to dim the neighborhood, and had roughly the computing power of today's microwave. Yet Asimov set his story nearly 3,000 years in the future—a world where humanity lives in sprawling enclosed cities (New York) and depends on advanced technology for nearly every aspect of daily life. The remarkable part isn't how much of the technology he imagined. It's how accurately he predicted us. In Asimov's future, society struggles with the introduction of highly sophisticated humanoid robots powered by "positronic brains." Naturally, a lou...
Post a Comment
Read more

Resurrecting the '90s Graphite

Let’s face it, there’s a certain danger in reading John Gierach's Trout Bum . His wit, self-deprecation, and sharp, effortless satire are entirely infectious. If you aren't careful, his words will inspire you to drop everything, wade into a freezing river, and try to outsmart a creature with a brain the size of a lentil. In my case, re-reading Gierach recently didn't send me straight to the river. It sent me digging through the dusty, spider-guarded corners of my garage. In the early 1990s, seeking a natural escape from Manhattan's concrete canyons, I decided to learn to cast a fly rod. I bought an Orvis Rocky Mountain —eight-and-a-half feet, three ounces, built for a five-weight line—and had absolutely no idea how to use it. To avoid aimlessly whipping the water like scrambling eggs, I took fly-fishing lessons from Al Cucci, co-author of Hatches , on the Delaware River. With his guidance, I fished renowned waters: the AuSable in New York and Michigan, and New Jersey...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Birth of a Cubs Legend

In this episode, The 162-Game Exhale — and the Birth of a Cubs Legend There’s a hush in the baseball world on Game 162 — a collective breath drawn in and slowly released. Scoreboards stop flipping. Dugouts empty. For six months, the game has been our steady heartbeat, pulsing from the cherry blossoms of Tokyo in March to the crisp, playoff-charged winds of late September. And now, as the regular season exhales, baseball fans everywhere pause to absorb the story we’ve just lived. For me, that story has been deeply personal. This season unfolded in the rhythms of my daily life. It was the summer soundtrack echoing beneath the constant turmoil of politics and sensational headlines. It was a handful of carefully chosen ballpark pilgrimages stitched together with countless nights in front of MLB.TV. And at the center of it all, for a lifelong Cubs fan like me, it revolved around one name — a young center fielder who turned hope into history: Pete Crow-Armstrong. The 2025 season didn’t begin...
Post a Comment
Read more