Everybody Lies

We are all Statisticians. “Yah right, everyone I've ever talked to hates statistics, and they hate math.” Don’t believe me?

Let me give you an everyday example: When you drive your car to work and approach a stoplight, pay attention next time to how you monitor traffic patterns and observe the sequence of the green, orange, and red lights.

Watch the light above you, to your right. The traffic running past you (perpendicular to you) has a green light, it changes to orange, then red. When the traffic stops, notice the slight delay before the traffic in front of you get’s the green arrow to turn left. During that 3 second delay, you can make your right turn and be safely ahead of the oncoming traffic turning left.

What’s going on here? You’re gathering data. Data that helps you decide whether to wait for your green light or make the right turn on a red light ahead of the oncoming traffic. In other words, you’re making an inference, “Drawing a conclusion from available evidence or data.” That’s statistics!

Why do this? Well, in California, anyway, we deal with a lot of impatient drivers. “I’m late, need to get to work. I can save a few precious seconds. Sitting at this stupid stoplight is a waste of time.”

I’m thinking you probably own a smartphone? According to Pew Research, “The vast majority of Americans – 96% – now own a cellphone of some kind. The share of Americans that own smartphones is now 81%, up from just 35% in Pew Research Center’s first survey of smartphone ownership conducted in 2011.”

When you have a question, need directions, or simply want to check your FaceBook status, your gathering data yet again to make a decision. How often do you do this? Not while you’re driving I hope.

If you have an iPhone try this; Go to Settings, then scroll down the list of apps until you find Battery, click on battery, then scroll down to see Battery Usage. This allows you to see what percentage of battery usage your phone is using for each app that you open. Oops, you're gathering data again. Watch out this is the math you hate.

How about getting directions? With your smartphone, you ask for directions in Google maps. While running in the background it’s recording your every move. Don’t believe me, try this; from your computer, go to google.com, search for Maps, click on Google Maps, click on the menu (top left corner), click on your places, then click on visit. This will show you all the locations you visited while using Google Maps. Yes, you can change your settings to stop this - but how many people do?

Even more fundamental is how data is gathered when you ask Google any question. What types of things do you ask in the privacy of your own home, with your smartphone, or your connected tablet? I can only speculate. However, all this data is being collected and used by social scientists to make an inference on health, political values, the economy, what news we're exposed to, and much more.

Check out the book,

Everybody Lies - Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Reveals About Who We Really Are. by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Every decision you make is based on some kind of data source. Growing up, it was sights, sounds, smells, and touch. Data that your mind gathered to allow you to make life decisions. Now technology allows scientists to gather data on everything we do or say based on the habits we develop using our smartphones.

What do you think about that Mr. or Ms. Statistician?

This is Patrick Ball, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.

Comments

Anonymous said…

We have red, yellow and green lights here in the U.S.

August 14, 2020 at 4:17 PM

The Who Was - Series

In this episode, the Who Was? - Series . . . With over 250 titles, Penguin Random House Books Who Was? - Series tells the incredible stories of trailblazers, legends, innovators, and creators. Are you a bibliophile, an individual who loves and frequently reads books (a bookworm)? What is it that compels you to pick up a book? Is it the cover, is it the title, how about an interest in a specialized subject, or just - perhaps it's a whim? One of my ultimate goals with these podcasts is to reach a young audience. I've found that reading children's books is a gratifying and educational experience. Yes, even grown-ups can understand difficult concepts. To my surprise, both children and adults seem to appreciate the experience. With education such a hot topic in the news right now, we need to be reminded that whether it's going to school, visiting a museum, or online learning, the goal of education (both young and old) is to nurture an interest in learning. William Butler Ye

Big Apple, Big Charge

In this episode – Big Apple, Big Charge . . . Welcome back to On the Fly, your weekly dose of quirky observations and unexpected trends. Today, we're fresh off a trip to the Scaffolding/Plywood jungle, where we witnessed a phenomenon that will make you rethink your relationship with the humble wall socket. That's right, we're talking about New York City, and it's . . . wait for it — Free, ubiquitous electric outlets! New York constantly buzzes with traffic, jackhammers, honking horns, and helicopters. But what struck me most was the sheer volume of people glued to their devices while commuting and navigating the streets with hundreds of construction obstacles. It's like everyone's “plugged into” some invisible grid—phones, tablets, watches, headphones, earbuds, e-bikes—you name it. And that's where things get interesting. But, unlike our quiet suburban life, free outlets in NYC aren't exactly abundant. So, how do these New Yorkers keep their gadgets

What Time Is It

In this episode – What Time Is It . . . In the era before smartphones, let’s say we’re on a telephone call, and you ask me, “What time is it?” As a five-year-old, my reply is, "The big hand is on the two (2) and the little hand on the eight (8).” You would then say, "Alright, it's ten minutes after eight o’clock or eight-ten, right?" This is how we learned to tell time as children–remember? Well, what happened . . . During dinner last week in Westfield, NJ, a retired high school teacher told our group, “Did you know that children today cannot read the time on a traditional watch with an analog face?” “Why not?” we asked. “Because of smartphones and the proliferation of digital clocks.” “Wow! That’s hard to believe.” Welcome to this week's episode of "On the Fly." Today, we'll compare classic mechanical watches to modern quartz watches and explore an unexpected social shift. To begin with, let me take you back a few days. I’m a traditionalist and pre

It Runs on Steam

In this episode – It Runs on Steam . . . If you’ve seen Back to The Future III, you may remember Doc Brown's line, “It Runs on Steam !” Recently, I visited my good friend Billy in Westfield, New Jersey. Among his many other hobbies, Billy is a steam engine enthusiast. He proudly fired up his miniature steam engine and confidently explained its workings, which got me thinking . . . (Sound effect of Billy's steam engine whistle) Have you ever considered how environmentally friendly a steam engine powered by renewable energy could be? There would be no need for gasoline, batteries, diesel fuel, or Uranium-234. Imagine an engine powered by water—yes, water. I can hear the naysayers: "But . . .” Welcome back to On the Fly, where we dive into one of history's most fascinating inventions. Today, we're firing up a revolution – the Industrial Revolution, that is – with the mighty steam engine! For centuries, people relied on muscle, wind, and waterpower to get things do

On The Fly

Search This Blog