Skip to main content

Everybody Lies

Podcast  - Everybody Lies . . .

We are all Statisticians. “Yah right, everyone I've ever talked to hates statistics, and they hate math.” Don’t believe me?

Let me give you an everyday example: When you drive your car to work and approach a stoplight, pay attention next time to how you monitor traffic patterns and observe the sequence of the green, orange, and red lights.

Watch the light above you, to your right. The traffic running past you (perpendicular to you) has a green light, it changes to orange, then red. When the traffic stops, notice the slight delay before the traffic in front of you get’s the green arrow to turn left. During that 3 second delay, you can make your right turn and be safely ahead of the oncoming traffic turning left.

What’s going on here? You’re gathering data. Data that helps you decide whether to wait for your green light or make the right turn on a red light ahead of the oncoming traffic. In other words, you’re making an inference, “Drawing a conclusion from available evidence or data.” That’s statistics!

Why do this? Well, in California, anyway, we deal with a lot of impatient drivers. “I’m late, need to get to work. I can save a few precious seconds. Sitting at this stupid stoplight is a waste of time.”

I’m thinking you probably own a smartphone? According to Pew Research, “The vast majority of Americans – 96% – now own a cellphone of some kind. The share of Americans that own smartphones is now 81%, up from just 35% in Pew Research Center’s first survey of smartphone ownership conducted in 2011.”

When you have a question, need directions, or simply want to check your FaceBook status, your gathering data yet again to make a decision. How often do you do this? Not while you’re driving I hope.

If you have an iPhone try this; Go to Settings, then scroll down the list of apps until you find Battery, click on battery, then scroll down to see Battery Usage. This allows you to see what percentage of battery usage your phone is using for each app that you open. Oops, you're gathering data again. Watch out this is the math you hate.

How about getting directions? With your smartphone, you ask for directions in Google maps. While running in the background it’s recording your every move. Don’t believe me, try this; from your computer, go to google.com, search for Maps, click on Google Maps, click on the menu (top left corner), click on your places, then click on visit. This will show you all the locations you visited while using Google Maps. Yes, you can change your settings to stop this - but how many people do?

Even more fundamental is how data is gathered when you ask Google any question. What types of things do you ask in the privacy of your own home, with your smartphone, or your connected tablet? I can only speculate. However, all this data is being collected and used by social scientists to make an inference on health, political values, the economy, what news we're exposed to, and much more. 

Check out the book, 

Everybody Lies - Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Reveals About Who We Really Are. by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Every decision you make is based on some kind of data source. Growing up, it was sights, sounds, smells, and touch. Data that your mind gathered to allow you to make life decisions. Now technology allows scientists to gather data on everything we do or say based on the habits we develop using our smartphones.

What do you think about that Mr. or Ms. Statistician?

This is Patrick Ball, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.

Labels:

Comments

Anonymous said…
We have red, yellow and green lights here in the U.S.
August 14, 2020 at 4:17 PM
Post a Comment

Most Popular of All Time

The Gopher Problem and the High Powered Solution

Vacationing in Maine this week, just a short drive down the coast from Freeport, it is hard not to think about the outsized impact one frustrated outdoorsman had on the gear we all use today. Bad equipment can ruin a perfectly good day on the water or the trail, but it takes a special kind of vision to turn cold feet into a century-old empire. This is the story of the company we now know as L.L.Bean, but more importantly, it is a masterclass in integrity, learning from failure, and standing behind your work. In 1912, Leon Leonwood Bean faced a persistent problem: returning from expeditions in the Maine woods with cold, wet feet. Instead of complaining, he got creative. He had a local shoemaker stitch waterproof rubber soles onto the flexible leather uppers of a hunting boot. He called it the Maine Hunting Shoe and mailed a flyer promising perfect satisfaction. Then reality arrived. Ninety of his first 100 pairs failed when the rubber separated from the leather. Not an effective product...
Post a Comment
Read more

Stamps and Snow

In this episode, Stamps and Snow . . .   You don’t usually walk into the local Post Office expecting a time warp . . . but here we are. All we wanted were stamps for this year's Christmas cards— yes, the old-fashioned paper ones that require licking, sticking, and hoping the Postal Service is feeling ambitious this week. But holiday errands have a talent for slowing you down, almost like the universe whispering, “Relax. You’re not getting out of this line any faster anyway.” So we waited. And while we waited, we talked (Are you surprised?). Because the Post Office is one of the few places where people still look up from their phones long enough to talk . . . Maybe it's because they're holding packages. It’s the modern town square: part civic duty, part free entertainment, part sociology experiment. The discussion began with holiday specials streaming on Netflix, Paramount+, and other services during this time of year. One gentleman who has lived in Vista since 1958 told us,...
3 comments
Read more

On Becoming Real

Some things get better with wear: old shoes, old friendships, and old books. Especially old books. A new volume arrives with crisp corners and a spine that hasn’t yet learned to bend. An old one has been somewhere. It has traveled through time in the hands of people who may no longer be around to tell us what they found inside. The copy of The Velveteen Rabbit (first published in 1922) on my desk is one of those books. My friend Don Hanley gave it to me. This late-1950s Doubleday edition features William Nicholson’s original illustrations and cream paper boards softened by age. Worn corners, a split spine, and colored tabs mark passages worth revisiting. Don didn’t hand me a keepsake. He gave me homework. When we talked about the book recently, he pointed me straight to the nursery conversation between a young rabbit and an old Skin Horse. The rabbit had noticed the mechanical toys around him—the ones with internal gears, bright paint, and stick-out handles that seem terribly impressiv...
Post a Comment
Read more

A Dog, a Beer . . . and the Ghost of 1912

Whenever you step into an American cathedral of our National Pastime built before modern ergonomics, municipal zoning, or crowd-flow dynamics, an unspoken understanding forms, creating a welcoming, timeless atmosphere. You trade legroom, sensible corridors, and personal space for the privilege of communing with ghosts. Last week, Lori and I made our pilgrimage to Fenway Park to watch our Chicago Cubs take on the Boston Red Sox (a taut 0–2 contest that felt spiritually tied to their 1918 World Series meeting). Staying just across the Charles River at the Courtyard Marriott in Cambridge gave us one immeasurable tactical advantage: we walked. While the automotive gridlock around Kenmore Square took on the character of the Siege of Yorktown—horns echoing across the asphalt like musket fire—we simply strolled across the Boston University Bridge, enjoying the river breeze and feeling smugly superior to everyone trapped behind a steering wheel. Fenway, built in the spring of 1912, holds rough...
Post a Comment
Read more