Everybody Lies

We are all Statisticians. “Yah right, everyone I've ever talked to hates statistics, and they hate math.” Don’t believe me?

Let me give you an everyday example: When you drive your car to work and approach a stoplight, pay attention next time to how you monitor traffic patterns and observe the sequence of the green, orange, and red lights.

Watch the light above you, to your right. The traffic running past you (perpendicular to you) has a green light, it changes to orange, then red. When the traffic stops, notice the slight delay before the traffic in front of you get’s the green arrow to turn left. During that 3 second delay, you can make your right turn and be safely ahead of the oncoming traffic turning left.

What’s going on here? You’re gathering data. Data that helps you decide whether to wait for your green light or make the right turn on a red light ahead of the oncoming traffic. In other words, you’re making an inference, “Drawing a conclusion from available evidence or data.” That’s statistics!

Why do this? Well, in California, anyway, we deal with a lot of impatient drivers. “I’m late, need to get to work. I can save a few precious seconds. Sitting at this stupid stoplight is a waste of time.”

I’m thinking you probably own a smartphone? According to Pew Research, “The vast majority of Americans – 96% – now own a cellphone of some kind. The share of Americans that own smartphones is now 81%, up from just 35% in Pew Research Center’s first survey of smartphone ownership conducted in 2011.”

When you have a question, need directions, or simply want to check your FaceBook status, your gathering data yet again to make a decision. How often do you do this? Not while you’re driving I hope.

If you have an iPhone try this; Go to Settings, then scroll down the list of apps until you find Battery, click on battery, then scroll down to see Battery Usage. This allows you to see what percentage of battery usage your phone is using for each app that you open. Oops, you're gathering data again. Watch out this is the math you hate.

How about getting directions? With your smartphone, you ask for directions in Google maps. While running in the background it’s recording your every move. Don’t believe me, try this; from your computer, go to google.com, search for Maps, click on Google Maps, click on the menu (top left corner), click on your places, then click on visit. This will show you all the locations you visited while using Google Maps. Yes, you can change your settings to stop this - but how many people do?

Even more fundamental is how data is gathered when you ask Google any question. What types of things do you ask in the privacy of your own home, with your smartphone, or your connected tablet? I can only speculate. However, all this data is being collected and used by social scientists to make an inference on health, political values, the economy, what news we're exposed to, and much more.

Check out the book,

Everybody Lies - Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Reveals About Who We Really Are. by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Every decision you make is based on some kind of data source. Growing up, it was sights, sounds, smells, and touch. Data that your mind gathered to allow you to make life decisions. Now technology allows scientists to gather data on everything we do or say based on the habits we develop using our smartphones.

What do you think about that Mr. or Ms. Statistician?

This is Patrick Ball, thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.

Comments

Anonymous said…

We have red, yellow and green lights here in the U.S.

August 14, 2020 at 4:17 PM

History Isn’t a Museum

✨ In this episode, History Isn't a Museum—It's a River . . . History isn't a museum—it's a river, and like it or not, we're already swimming in it. Its waters carry timeless lessons forward, flowing through each generation, waiting to be rediscovered . This profound realization struck me while reading Marcus Aurelius's Meditations . Imagine: a Roman emperor and philosopher two thousand years ago, writing notes that sound like advice from a modern mindfulness coach. When he says, "You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength," it feels like he's speaking directly to us. The water may change, but the river is the same. Examining this writing with a fresh, childlike perspective and a wealth of experience, I realize how consistent human nature remains over time. Every generation faces familiar challenges, marked by frustration, peace, courage, faith, baseball, and the search for meaning across the ages...

Lessons from 1872

In this episode, Lessons from 1872: Travel in the Age of No-WiFi . . . Imagine having 80 days to explore the world, with no smartphones, no jet planes, and no money concerns. A thrilling thought, right? That’s the fantasy Jules Verne implies in his classic adventure, Around the World in 80 Days , and it's a question I've been pondering from my easy chair in Vista, California. This week’s On the Fly , we're traveling back in time with one of the most thrilling literary adventures ever written. Early on, it’s clear this is Phileas Fogg’s story—a man of clocks and calculations, whose every move is measured. His journey isn’t about discovery, but a bet—a mathematical challenge involving money, schedules, and perfect timing. But when you think he’s the engine of the story, someone else quietly steals the show. Meet Passepartout: The Heart of the Journey. Jean Passepartout, Fogg’s new valet, is Fogg’s complete opposite. A former circus acrobat seeking a quiet life, he joins Fo...

The Silent Grid–Part Two

In this episode, The Silent Grid – Part Two Sirens split the night as Greenwood went dark. Marvin knew instantly—the blackout wasn’t an accident. It was a warning. In this quiet town, where life once unfolded at a predictable pace, a sleek, intuitive smartphone—a so-called gift from the future —has arrived. But it’s no tool for connection. It’s a silent force, erasing individuality and turning neighbors into something less than human. Marvin Gellborn, a man who values independence, sees the truth. His device isn’t helping; it’s testing him, watching him, and quietly embedding itself into the life of Greenwood. Welcome back to On the Fly . In this week’s episode of The Silent Grid , GridBot tightens its grip. After a hopeful community gathering, Marvin and his robot companion, Norman, notice a troubling absence—the very generation they hoped to reach has vanished into the neon glow of The Signal Box , a youth tech hub pulsing with digital obsession. When Greenwood’s lights vanish, Marvi...

Shadows in the Grid

In this episode, Chapter Nine – Shadows in the Grid (Previous episode) – The Disconnected Generation . The first flicker came just after midnight. Marvin sat at his kitchen table, scribbling notes about the park gathering, when the overhead light shivered, dimmed, and went out. The hum of the refrigerator ceased, leaving a silence so complete it seemed to press against his skin. Norman, standing near the door like a watchman, tilted his head. A faint glow pulsed from his chest cavity, the hydrogen core humming steady, almost reassuring. “Localized outage,” Norman said, calm to the point of detachment. “GridBot will stabilize in sixty seconds.” But sixty seconds passed. Then another. The street outside remained cloaked in darkness. No backup generators started. No emergency lights blinked alive. Greenwood lay as still as a painting. Marvin pushed back his chair, his heartbeat quickening. “This isn’t just an outage, Norman. Something’s wrong.” Norman’s optic sensors brightened, their pal...

On The Fly

Search This Blog